From my safe and privileged position, I look out on a world with far too many needlessly bad things going on elsewhere , some of which stand out as particularly egregious. However, that outlook is subject to perspective. The worst of the egregious situations to be clearly in my view is Israel’s cruel and brutal slow extermination of the people of Gaza, but that is on the very horizon for me; I can see that it is inexcusably horrible, but it does not loom large. Russia’s attempt to conquer Ukraine is another large wrong in the world, but at the end of the terrible carnage, it seems likely to ultimately fail, and the burden of the tragedy will mainly rest on Russian shoulders. However, the third great horror standing tall above the others does loom large over me. Despite the much greater geographical distance than Palestine or Ukraine, culture and economy make the United States of America very significant in my own life, perhaps more so than the other end of the British Isles. And so, although their current predicament does not directly involve me, it is right in my face, and I can not help but be worried by it.
They say history does not so much repeat as rhyme, and I agree: similar situations do arise again and again, but the differences in details make them play out a little differently, for better or worse, each time. Donald Trump is an open admirer of Hitler, and he is clearly modelling the approach for his second term on mid-20th Century Fascism, and especially 1930s Germany. This is profoundly worrying, even for citizens of neighbouring countries, let alone those Americans sharp enough to realise what they are getting into.
Fascism is not a casual and exaggerated insult: Trump’s current administration is embracing as many of its defining characteristics as it can. We have the general poisoning of public discourse with systematic lying about all sorts of subjects as the softening up. Then we have the running of the country for the benefit of magnates at the expense of workers. This is not an exclusively Fascist thing, it is a general feature of right-wing and neoliberal countries, but it is a fundamental one. Then we have the establishment of a brutal political police operating above the law, and the building of concentration camps, probably intended to develop into death camps in due course. That is not being staunchly conservative, that is outright Nazism. Thus we have the stage set for the coming of some very dark times for America, and for America to drag other countries to their doom too, if they cannot disengage quickly and thoroughly.
The murder of Renee Good was a shocking wake up call. The IDF murder civilians in cold blood on a massive scale day after day, but, as I said, they are on my horizon. Renee’s terrible fate was just a petulant whim, perhaps frustration that an attempt to to bully was met with polite and good natured compliance, when he craved confrontation . The murderer Ross’s vainglorious posting of his own video of the incident shows he has no reasonable defence for his action. The murder was a dreadful thing in its own right, but the aftermath exposed worse: instead of being promptly arrested, ICE helped their delinquent colleague flee justice, and, worse still, the highest levels of government extended their support. That was the turning point; after a year of being at growing risk of becoming a Fascist state, the USA now objectively is one.
The dark cloud hangs overhead, but does it have a silver lining? Maybe. There are enough historical examples of the establishment of Fascist states to see how America has followed their playbook, and it has now achieved enough in common with them to be added to their number. To find hope that American Fascism might rapidly fail, we need to look to the differences between this time round and when long-term Fascism has endured. One of the common threads of Fascism is the concentration of power in a charismatic leader. Not one has successfully bequeathed their power to another charismatic leader though, Fascism has always collapsed in the months following the demise of its beloved strongman. The Fascist leaders who ruled for decades, started in the prime of life, and could spend a couple of years on consolidating their power. Trump is already into his dotage, and has no time on his side for building his structures of oppression solidly, he must rush. Of course, another potential point of difference from the playbook, is that Trump could hand over to someone who could carry on his work. However, the succession is already settled on JD Vance ( unless Trump’s doctors can improbably nurse him along to the end of his term) . He has the youth, the energy and the malignity to be a Fascist dictator, for sure, but the lack of charisma, that made him a good strategic pick as VP to a President who hates being upstaged, will be a fatal handicap. For all his manifold inadequacies, Trump at least still carries an air of mobster menace from his decades of organised crime, while Vance is just a creep. It is hard to manage him commanding the level of personal loyalty that so many people misguidedly lavish on Trump. Sexually abusing young girls is scandalous, but sexually abusing furniture is just weird, and although the story may be apocryphal it does resonate with how unrelatable Vance is. Vance’s Indian wife won’t endear him to the bitter racists making the hard core of Trump’s support, either.
Apart from the likelihood that Trump will soon die and Vance fail to fill his shoes, another way in which America is unlike anywhere that Fascism endured for any length of time is the absolutely vast number of civilian guns in circulation. ICE won’t be able to pull off many more Renee Good type murders before the citizens start shooting back. Ironically, the right wing have traditionally been the keenest on their Second Amendment rights, but now ICE are shooting white citizens, they are going to start reflecting on just why the Second was passed, and using their guns to defend against an oppressive Federal government the way the Founding Fathers foresaw a potential need for one day. That will change everything. Five or ten ICE thugs shot on duty might just be taken as a provocation, but once the casualties climb into the hundreds, ICE will have a morale crash - they became secret policemen to bully people - not soldiers to do battle. If this scenario comes to pass, it is hard to guess what the final outcome will be, quite likely still a messed up and dangerous America, but the neo-Nazi project will crash and burn, whatever follows.
So, although the chance of Trump successfully establishing a Fascist state that menaces the rest of the world while crushing its own people is high enough to seriously worry about, I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion. There are also likely ways it could fail and save us all. I think we have now seen the de facto leadership of the free world pass from the US to Canada as a consequence of Trump’s diplomatic ineptitude, but it will remain a substantial player on the world stage, and it would be terrible if it could play dirty for any length of time. Let us hope that sanity returns soon
